Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

Kimberley J. Reid; Travis A. O'Brien; Andrew D. King; Todd P. Lane

doi:10.1029/2021GL095335

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

Kimberley J. Reid, Travis A. O'Brien, Andrew D. King, Todd P. Lane

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL095335
Number of pages	8
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	22
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095335
Publication status	Published - 28 Nov 2021
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

climate change
CMIP6
extreme rainfall
floods
integrated water vapor transport (IVT)
moisture

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10.1029/2021GL095335Licence: Unspecified

Cite this

@article{2ecf989c1e6f4fc1b0afb50830365d06,

title = "Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections",

abstract = "During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3\% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2\%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80\% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.",

keywords = "climate change, CMIP6, extreme rainfall, floods, integrated water vapor transport (IVT), moisture",

author = "Reid, \{Kimberley J.\} and O'Brien, \{Travis A.\} and King, \{Andrew D.\} and Lane, \{Todd P.\}",

note = "Funding Information: The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T. P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The work of T. A. O'Brien was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional \& Global Model Analysis Program, under Award DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Additionally, we thank Scott Wales for helping write the script used to obtain the CMIP6 data. Funding Information: The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T. P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The work of T. A. O'Brien was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional \& Global Model Analysis Program, under Award DE-AC02-05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Additionally, we thank Scott Wales for helping write the script used to obtain the CMIP6 data. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1029/2021GL095335",

language = "English",

volume = "48",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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AU - O'Brien, Travis A.

AU - King, Andrew D.

AU - Lane, Todd P.

N1 - Funding Information: The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T. P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The work of T. A. O'Brien was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Model Analysis Program, under Award DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Additionally, we thank Scott Wales for helping write the script used to obtain the CMIP6 data. Funding Information: The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T. P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. The work of T. A. O'Brien was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Model Analysis Program, under Award DE-AC02-05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Additionally, we thank Scott Wales for helping write the script used to obtain the CMIP6 data. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

PY - 2021/11/28

Y1 - 2021/11/28

N2 - During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

AB - During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

KW - climate change

KW - CMIP6

KW - extreme rainfall

KW - floods

KW - integrated water vapor transport (IVT)

KW - moisture

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85119987405

U2 - 10.1029/2021GL095335

DO - 10.1029/2021GL095335

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85119987405

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 22

M1 - e2021GL095335

ER -

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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Projects

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this