Exploring the relationship of conflict characteristics and consequent crash severity

Amir Sobhani, William Young, David Logan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


This paper outlines the development of a modelling approach to measure the occupant injury severity of two vehicle crashes based on the characteristics of the conflict. A combination of statistical analysis and numerical analysis based on Newtonian Mechanics is utilised to develop this modelling framework. The Australian Crash In-Depth Study (ANCIS) database is used to estimate and validate the model. Three sequential steps were undertaken to develop the model. In the first step, the driver reaction before a crash was determined according to the type of conflict, weather condition, driver's gender and speed limit of the vehicles. A Binary Probit Model was utilised to measure the driver reaction before the crash. In the second step, the speed change of the subject vehicle (ΔVs) was estimated using conflict characteristics and driver reaction in conflict. A Log-Gamma regression model was used to estimate ΔVs. Newtonian mechanics was used to estimate the kinetic energy applied to the subject vehicle according to the mass and estimated ΔVs. In the third step, a Log-Gamma regression model was used to estimate the Injury Severity Score (ISS) of the conflict based on estimated kinetic energy of the subject vehicle, the impact type of the crash, presence of airbag, presence of seat belt and age of the occupant. The modelling approach can be incorporated into a micro simulation model to provide more accurate safety assessment of road locations based on conflict analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAustralasian Transport Research Forum 2011 Proceedings
EditorsDr Peter Tisato, Dr Frank Primerano, Dr Nicholas Holyoak, Mr Lindsay Oxlad
Place of PublicationAdelaide SA
PublisherAustralasian Transport Research Forum
Pages1 - 15
Number of pages15
ISBN (Print)9780759001695
Publication statusPublished - 2011
EventAustralasian Transport Research Forum 2011 - Hilton Hotel Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Duration: 28 Sep 201130 Sep 2011
Conference number: 34th
https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/papers/2011 (Proceedings)


ConferenceAustralasian Transport Research Forum 2011
Abbreviated titleATRF 2011
OtherInformation that appears as the header for all articles from this conference

Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011 Proceedings
28 - 30 September 2011, Adelaide, Australia
Publication website: http://www.patrec.org/atrf.aspx
Internet address


  • Conflict characteristics
  • Crash severity
  • Driver reaction
  • Kinetic energy

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