Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries

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Abstract

Testing the integrational properties of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy, for if visitor arrivals are integrated of order one (nonstationary) then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are found to be integrated or order zero (stationary) then this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this paper we examine whether visitor arrivals to Australia are stationary or nonstationary, using the recently developed univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier tests, and the Im, Pesaran and Shin [Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 1997. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Manuscript, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge; Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74] panel t-test. Our exercise involves Australia's 28 tourist source markets. Our main findings are: (1) that visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 tourist source markets are stationary, implying that any shock will have only a temporary effect and (2) the second structural break, which mainly coincides with the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Asian financial crisis, has slowed down the growth rate in visitor arrivals to Australia from 22 out of 28 (79%) of the tourism source markets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)751-761
Number of pages11
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Volume42
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Australia
  • Univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier unit root tests
  • Visitor arrivals

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