Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia

Long T. Truong, Chris de Gruyter, Graham Currie, Alexa Delbosc

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

64 Citations (Scopus)


Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18–24 age group and the 12–17 age group with 14.6 and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3–7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1279-1292
Number of pages14
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2017


  • Autonomous vehicles
  • Car trips
  • Driverless
  • Induced demand
  • Life stages

Cite this