Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study

Asnawi Abdullah, Fauzi Ali Amin, Farida Hanum, Johannes Stoelwinder, Stephanie Tanamas, Rory Wolf, Evelyn Wong, Anna Peeters

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Background: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population. Objective: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study. Design: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m2 was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association. Results: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4% higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.

Original languageEnglish
Article number30421
Pages (from-to)1-8
Number of pages8
JournalGlobal Health Action
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jun 2016

Keywords

  • BMI
  • Obese-years
  • Obesity
  • Offspring Framingham
  • Type-2 diabetes

Cite this

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title = "Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study",
abstract = "Background: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population. Objective: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study. Design: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m2 was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association. Results: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6{\%} (95{\%} CI: 5-7{\%}) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4{\%} higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.",
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Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study. / Abdullah, Asnawi; Amin, Fauzi Ali; Hanum, Farida; Stoelwinder, Johannes; Tanamas, Stephanie; Wolf, Rory; Wong, Evelyn; Peeters, Anna.

In: Global Health Action, Vol. 9, 30421, 30.06.2016, p. 1-8.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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AU - Amin, Fauzi Ali

AU - Hanum, Farida

AU - Stoelwinder, Johannes

AU - Tanamas, Stephanie

AU - Wolf, Rory

AU - Wong, Evelyn

AU - Peeters, Anna

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N2 - Background: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population. Objective: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study. Design: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m2 was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association. Results: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4% higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.

AB - Background: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population. Objective: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study. Design: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m2 was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association. Results: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4% higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.

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