Estimating the potential effects of a vaccine program against an emerging influenza pandemic - United States

Matthew Biggerstaff, Carrie Reed, David L Swerdlow, Manoj Gambhir, Samuel B Graitcer, Lyn Finelli, Rebekah H Borse, Sonja A Rasmussen, Martin I Meltzer, Carolyn B Bridges

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24 Citations (Scopus)


Background. Human illness from influenza A(H7N9) was identified in March 2013, and candidate vaccine viruses were soon developed. To understand factors that may impact influenza vaccination programs, we developed a model to evaluate hospitalizations and deaths averted considering various scenarios. Methods. We utilized a model incorporating epidemic curves with clinical attack rates of 20 or 30 in a single wave of illness, case hospitalization ratios of 0.5 or 4.2 , and case fatality ratios of 0.08 or 0.53 . We considered scenarios that achieved 80 vaccination coverage, various starts of vaccination programs (16 or 8 weeks before, the same week of, or 8 or 16 weeks after start of pandemic), an administration rate of 10 or 30 million doses per week (the latter rate is an untested assumption), and 2 levels of vaccine effectiveness (2 doses of vaccine required; either 62 or 80 effective for persons aged
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)S20 - S29
Number of pages10
JournalClinical Infectious Diseases
Publication statusPublished - 2015

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