Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

Danny Liew, John J. McNeil, Anna Peeters, Stephen S. Lim, Theo Vos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)364-367
Number of pages4
JournalThe Medical Journal of Australia
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 7 Oct 2002

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