Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades

Pamela Grothe, Kim M. Cobb, Giovanni Liguori, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Antonietta Capotondi, Yanbin Lu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, John R Southon, Guaciara M Santos, Daniel M Deocampo, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Tianran Chen, Hussein R Sayani, Diane M Thompson, Jessica L Conroy, Andrea L Moore, Kayla Townsend, Melat Hagos, Gemma O’ConnorLauren T Toth

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year‐to‐year global climate variability. While earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here, we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages23
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2020
Externally publishedYes

Cite this

Grothe, P., Cobb, K. M., Liguori, G., Di Lorenzo, E., Capotondi, A., Lu, Y., ... Toth, L. T. (Accepted/In press). Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906
Grothe, Pamela ; Cobb, Kim M. ; Liguori, Giovanni ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Lu, Yanbin ; Cheng, Hai ; Edwards, R. Lawrence ; Southon, John R ; Santos, Guaciara M ; Deocampo, Daniel M ; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean ; Chen, Tianran ; Sayani, Hussein R ; Thompson, Diane M ; Conroy, Jessica L ; Moore, Andrea L ; Townsend, Kayla ; Hagos, Melat ; O’Connor, Gemma ; Toth, Lauren T. / Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2020.
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title = "Enhanced El Ni{\~n}o‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades",
abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year‐to‐year global climate variability. While earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here, we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20{\%} from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25{\%} stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.",
author = "Pamela Grothe and Cobb, {Kim M.} and Giovanni Liguori and {Di Lorenzo}, Emanuele and Antonietta Capotondi and Yanbin Lu and Hai Cheng and Edwards, {R. Lawrence} and Southon, {John R} and Santos, {Guaciara M} and Deocampo, {Daniel M} and Jean Lynch-Stieglitz and Tianran Chen and Sayani, {Hussein R} and Thompson, {Diane M} and Conroy, {Jessica L} and Moore, {Andrea L} and Kayla Townsend and Melat Hagos and Gemma O’Connor and Toth, {Lauren T}",
year = "2020",
doi = "10.1029/2019GL083906",
language = "English",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

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Grothe, P, Cobb, KM, Liguori, G, Di Lorenzo, E, Capotondi, A, Lu, Y, Cheng, H, Edwards, RL, Southon, JR, Santos, GM, Deocampo, DM, Lynch-Stieglitz, J, Chen, T, Sayani, HR, Thompson, DM, Conroy, JL, Moore, AL, Townsend, K, Hagos, M, O’Connor, G & Toth, LT 2020, 'Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades', Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906

Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades. / Grothe, Pamela; Cobb, Kim M.; Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Capotondi, Antonietta; Lu, Yanbin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Southon, John R; Santos, Guaciara M; Deocampo, Daniel M; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Chen, Tianran; Sayani, Hussein R; Thompson, Diane M; Conroy, Jessica L; Moore, Andrea L; Townsend, Kayla; Hagos, Melat; O’Connor, Gemma; Toth, Lauren T.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades

AU - Grothe, Pamela

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Liguori, Giovanni

AU - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

AU - Capotondi, Antonietta

AU - Lu, Yanbin

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Edwards, R. Lawrence

AU - Southon, John R

AU - Santos, Guaciara M

AU - Deocampo, Daniel M

AU - Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

AU - Chen, Tianran

AU - Sayani, Hussein R

AU - Thompson, Diane M

AU - Conroy, Jessica L

AU - Moore, Andrea L

AU - Townsend, Kayla

AU - Hagos, Melat

AU - O’Connor, Gemma

AU - Toth, Lauren T

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year‐to‐year global climate variability. While earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here, we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

AB - The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year‐to‐year global climate variability. While earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here, we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

U2 - 10.1029/2019GL083906

DO - 10.1029/2019GL083906

M3 - Article

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

ER -