Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas

Grant A. Duffy, Fabien Montiel, Ariaan Purich, Ceridwen I. Fraser

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2321595121
Number of pages3
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume121
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 Mar 2024

Keywords

  • Amundsen Sea Low
  • Antarctica
  • polynya
  • sea ice
  • Southern Ocean

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