Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Hien X. Bui; Yi Xian Li; Eric D. Maloney; Ji Eun Kim; Sun Seon Lee; Jia Yuh Yu

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z

Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Hien X. Bui, Yi Xian Li, Eric D. Maloney, Ji Eun Kim, Sun Seon Lee, Jia Yuh Yu

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21^st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.

Original language	English
Article number	22
Number of pages	6
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	6
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z
Publication status	Published - 22 Mar 2023

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10.1038/s41612-023-00344-zLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate",

abstract = "The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.",

author = "Bui, {Hien X.} and Li, {Yi Xian} and Maloney, {Eric D.} and Kim, {Ji Eun} and Lee, {Sun Seon} and Yu, {Jia Yuh}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by Australian Research Council under grant CE170100023. E.D.M. acknowledges support from the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation under grant AGS-1841754. J.-E.K. and S.-S.L. were supported by the Institute for Basic Science project code IBS-R028-D1. We thank NCAR and IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) for providing the CESM2-LE data. The authors thank Matthew Wheeler and the other anonymous reviewer for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41612-023-00344-z",

language = "English",

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AU - Bui, Hien X.

AU - Li, Yi Xian

AU - Maloney, Eric D.

AU - Kim, Ji Eun

AU - Lee, Sun Seon

AU - Yu, Jia Yuh

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by Australian Research Council under grant CE170100023. E.D.M. acknowledges support from the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation under grant AGS-1841754. J.-E.K. and S.-S.L. were supported by the Institute for Basic Science project code IBS-R028-D1. We thank NCAR and IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) for providing the CESM2-LE data. The authors thank Matthew Wheeler and the other anonymous reviewer for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/3/22

Y1 - 2023/3/22

N2 - The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.

AB - The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.

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Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

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Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Abstract

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

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