Emergence of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude changes in a warming climate

Hien X. Bui, Yi Xian Li, Eric D. Maloney, Ji Eun Kim, Sun Seon Lee, Jia Yuh Yu

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2 Citations (Scopus)


The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events.

Original languageEnglish
Article number22
Number of pages6
Journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 22 Mar 2023

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