Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

Nicola Maher; Shayne McGregor; Matthew Heathcote England; Alexander Sen Gupta

doi:10.1002/2015GL064751

Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

Nicola Maher, Shayne McGregor, Matthew Heathcote England, Alexander Sen Gupta

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

145 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 612 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer post-eruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Nina-like response in the third SH summer post-eruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Nina occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Nina-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption. (c) 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6024 - 6033
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	42
Issue number	14
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064751
Publication status	Published - 2015
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

temperature reconstruction
tree ring
reconstruction

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10.1002/2015GL064751

3512439-OAFinal published version, 3.46 MB

Cite this

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title = "Effects of volcanism on tropical variability",

abstract = "The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 612 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer post-eruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Nina-like response in the third SH summer post-eruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Nina occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Nina-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption. (c) 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

keywords = "temperature reconstruction, tree ring, reconstruction",

author = "Nicola Maher and Shayne McGregor and England, {Matthew Heathcote} and {Sen Gupta}, Alexander",

year = "2015",

doi = "10.1002/2015GL064751",

language = "English",

volume = "42",

pages = "6024 -- 6033",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

AU - Maher, Nicola

AU - McGregor, Shayne

AU - England, Matthew Heathcote

AU - Sen Gupta, Alexander

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 612 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer post-eruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Nina-like response in the third SH summer post-eruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Nina occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Nina-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption. (c) 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

AB - The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 612 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer post-eruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Nina-like response in the third SH summer post-eruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Nina occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Nina-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption. (c) 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

KW - temperature reconstruction

KW - tree ring

KW - reconstruction

UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064751/pdf

U2 - 10.1002/2015GL064751

DO - 10.1002/2015GL064751

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 42

SP - 6024

EP - 6033

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 14

ER -

Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

Abstract

Keywords

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

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Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

Abstract

Keywords

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Cite this