Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand

A time series study

Yuming Guo, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Shilu Tong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

69 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999-2008. Method. A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65-74, 75-84, and>=85years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21days. Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0-21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0-21. Conclusion: This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

Original languageEnglish
Article number36
JournalEnvironmental Health: A Global Access Science Source
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular
  • Mortality
  • Respiratory
  • Temperature
  • Time series analysis

Cite this

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title = "Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand: A time series study",
abstract = "Background: The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999-2008. Method. A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65-74, 75-84, and>=85years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21days. Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0-21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95{\%} CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0-21. Conclusion: This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.",
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Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : A time series study. / Guo, Yuming; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Tong, Shilu.

In: Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source, Vol. 11, No. 1, 36, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand

T2 - A time series study

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Punnasiri, Kornwipa

AU - Tong, Shilu

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Background: The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999-2008. Method. A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65-74, 75-84, and>=85years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21days. Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0-21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0-21. Conclusion: This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

AB - Background: The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999-2008. Method. A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65-74, 75-84, and>=85years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21days. Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0-21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0-21. Conclusion: This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

KW - Cardiovascular

KW - Mortality

KW - Respiratory

KW - Temperature

KW - Time series analysis

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U2 - 10.1186/1476-069X-11-36

DO - 10.1186/1476-069X-11-36

M3 - Article

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JO - Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source

JF - Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source

SN - 1476-069X

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