Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: the role of international trade for Germany

Christian Lutz; Bernd Meyer

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.05.009

Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: the role of international trade for Germany

Christian Lutz, Bernd Meyer

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	882-887
Number of pages	6
Journal	Energy Economics
Volume	31
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.05.009
Publication status	Published - Nov 2009
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Energy prices and the macro economy
Global modelling
International trade

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10.1016/j.eneco.2009.05.009

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AB - The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy.

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KW - Global modelling

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Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: the role of international trade for Germany

Abstract

Keywords

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