There has always been a controversy surrounding Water Resources Sustainable Development (WRSD) during last decades. Many approaches, methods and frameworks have been presented to define and model this issue. At present study, a proposed mathematical equation based on Gaussian function concept is introduced for WRSD. Then, amongst a variety of water resources development statuses, the most appropriate one is selected. Further, for selected status, using proposed mathematical function and System Dynamic Approach (SDA), total water resources development curve is simulated. Finally, to achieve WRSD at the ultimate time, sensitivity analysis is evaluated. This study has been applied for Urmia Lake main basin in Iran. Results show that based on total water development function, the ultimate time of water resources development at Urmia Lake basin is calculated 100 years. Furthermore, based on proposed water development equation, drinking and municipal growth rate should be maintained 10% constantly and agricultural growth rate should decrease from 5% to 0.6% , however, the industrial growth rate should rise from 10% to 18.8% . WRSD based on proposed mathematical function and SDA gives opportunities to managers to design reliably and sustainably the path of water resource development.
- Water resources sustainable development
- Gaussian function