TY - JOUR
T1 - Duration of immunity to norovirus gastroenteritis
AU - Simmons, Kirsten
AU - Gambhir, Manoj
AU - Leon, Juan
AU - Lopman, Ben
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95 CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95 CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (>5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
AB - The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95 CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95 CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (>5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
UR - http://go.galegroup.com.ezproxy.lib.monash.edu.au/ps/retrieve.do?sgHitCountType=None&sort=RELEVANCE&inPS=true&prodId=AONE&userGroupName=monash&tabID=T
U2 - 10.3201/eid1908.130472
DO - 10.3201/eid1908.130472
M3 - Article
SN - 1080-6040
VL - 19
SP - 1260
EP - 1267
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases
IS - 8
ER -
