TY - JOUR
T1 - Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?
AU - Narayan, Paresh Kumar
AU - Sharma, Susan Sunila
AU - Bannigidadmath, Deepa
N1 - Funding Information:
Research discussed in this publication has been supported by the Global Development Network (GDN). The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of GDN.
Copyright:
Copyright 2013 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2013/7
Y1 - 2013/7
N2 - In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs - one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.
AB - In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs - one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.
KW - GDP
KW - Macroeconomic variables
KW - Money supply
KW - Panel data
KW - Predictive regression model
KW - Tourism
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84879832627&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.018
DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.018
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84879832627
SN - 0264-9993
VL - 33
SP - 780
EP - 786
JO - Economic Modelling
JF - Economic Modelling
ER -