Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms

Phosphate (PO₄) is a major component of most fertilizers, and when erosion and runoff occur, large amounts of it enter the water bodies, causing several problems such as eutrophication. Feitsui reservoir, the primary source of water supply to Taipei, reported half of the reservoir's pollutants from nonpoint-source pollution. The value of the PO₄ in the water body fluctuates in highly nonlinear and stochastic patterns. However, conventional modeling techniques are no longer sufficiently effective in predicting accurately such stochastic patterns in the concentrations of PO₄ in water. Therefore, this study proposes different machine learning algorithms: the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and boosted trees (BT) to predict the concentration of PO₄. Monthly measured data between 1986 and 2014 were used to train and test the accuracy of these models. The performances of these models were examined using different statistical indices. Hyperparameters optimization such as cross-validation was performed to enhance the precision of the models. Five water quality parameters were used as input to the proposed models. Different input combinations were explored to optimize the precision. The findings revealed that ANN outperformed the other three models to capture the changes in the concentrations of PO₄ with high precision where RMSE is equal to 1.199, MAE is equal to 0.858, and R² is equal to 0.979, MSE is equal to 1.439, and finally, CC is equal to 0.9909. The developed model could be used as a reliable means for managing eutrophication problems.