Development of numerical model-based machine learning algorithms for different healing stages of distal radius fracture healing

Background and objectives: Early therapeutic exercises are vital for the healing of distal radius fractures (DRFs) treated with the volar locking plate. However, current development of rehabilitation plans using computational simulation is normally time-consuming and requires high computational power. Thus, there is a clear need for developing machine learning (ML) based algorithms that are easy for end-users to implement in daily clinical practice. The purpose of the present study is to develop optimal ML algorithms for designing effective DRF physiotherapy programs at different stages of healing. Method: First, a three-dimensional computational model for the healing of DRF was developed by integrating mechano-regulated cell differentiation, tissue formation and angiogenesis. The model is capable of predicting time-dependant healing outcomes based on different physiologically relevant loading conditions, fracture geometries, gap sizes, and healing time. After being validated using available clinical data, the developed computational model was implemented to generate a total of 3600 clinical data for training the ML models. Finally, the optimal ML algorithm for each healing stage was identified. Results: The selection of the optimal ML algorithm depends on the healing stage. The results from this study show that cubic support vector machine (SVM) has the best performance in predicting the healing outcomes at the early stage of healing, while trilayered ANN outperforms other ML algorithms in the late stage of healing. The outcomes from the developed optimal ML algorithms indicate that Smith fractures with medium gap sizes could enhance the healing of DRF by inducing larger cartilaginous callus, while Colles fractures with large gap sizes may lead to delayed healing by bringing excessive fibrous tissues. Conclusions: ML represents a promising approach for developing efficient and effective patient-specific rehabilitation strategies. However, ML algorithms at different healing stages need to be carefully chosen before being implemented in clinical applications.