Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production

Mehrdad Arashpour, Ron Wakefield

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)


The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationImplementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015
EditorsSwapan Saha, Y. X. Zhang, Siamak Yazdani, Amarjit Singh
Place of PublicationFargo ND USA
PublisherISEC Press
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9780996043717
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015: Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management - Sydney, Australia
Duration: 23 Nov 201528 Nov 2015
Conference number: 8th


ConferenceInternational Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015
Abbreviated titleISEC 2015


  • Construction management
  • Delays and rework
  • Hybrid projects
  • Plan reliability
  • Simulation and optimization
  • Site built processes
  • Workflow analysis

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