Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production

Mehrdad Arashpour, Ron Wakefield

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationImplementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015
EditorsSwapan Saha, Y. X. Zhang, Siamak Yazdani, Amarjit Singh
Place of PublicationFargo ND USA
PublisherISEC Press
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9780996043717
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015: Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management - Sydney, Australia
Duration: 23 Nov 201528 Nov 2015
Conference number: 8th

Conference

ConferenceInternational Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015
Abbreviated titleISEC 2015
CountryAustralia
CitySydney
Period23/11/1528/11/15

Keywords

  • Construction management
  • Delays and rework
  • Hybrid projects
  • Plan reliability
  • Simulation and optimization
  • Site built processes
  • Workflow analysis

Cite this

Arashpour, M., & Wakefield, R. (2015). Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. In S. Saha, Y. X. Zhang, S. Yazdani, & A. Singh (Eds.), Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015 Fargo ND USA: ISEC Press. https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7
Arashpour, Mehrdad ; Wakefield, Ron. / Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. editor / Swapan Saha ; Y. X. Zhang ; Siamak Yazdani ; Amarjit Singh. Fargo ND USA : ISEC Press, 2015.
@inproceedings{f4ccf0a20d86443c983047ceef2e344f,
title = "Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production",
abstract = "The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.",
keywords = "Construction management, Delays and rework, Hybrid projects, Plan reliability, Simulation and optimization, Site built processes, Workflow analysis",
author = "Mehrdad Arashpour and Ron Wakefield",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7",
language = "English",
editor = "Swapan Saha and Zhang, {Y. X.} and Siamak Yazdani and Amarjit Singh",
booktitle = "Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management",
publisher = "ISEC Press",

}

Arashpour, M & Wakefield, R 2015, Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. in S Saha, YX Zhang, S Yazdani & A Singh (eds), Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. ISEC Press, Fargo ND USA, International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015, Sydney, Australia, 23/11/15. https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. / Arashpour, Mehrdad; Wakefield, Ron.

Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. ed. / Swapan Saha; Y. X. Zhang; Siamak Yazdani; Amarjit Singh. Fargo ND USA : ISEC Press, 2015.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production

AU - Arashpour, Mehrdad

AU - Wakefield, Ron

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

AB - The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

KW - Construction management

KW - Delays and rework

KW - Hybrid projects

KW - Plan reliability

KW - Simulation and optimization

KW - Site built processes

KW - Workflow analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84960981581&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

DO - 10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

M3 - Conference Paper

BT - Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management

A2 - Saha, Swapan

A2 - Zhang, Y. X.

A2 - Yazdani, Siamak

A2 - Singh, Amarjit

PB - ISEC Press

CY - Fargo ND USA

ER -

Arashpour M, Wakefield R. Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. In Saha S, Zhang YX, Yazdani S, Singh A, editors, Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. Fargo ND USA: ISEC Press. 2015 https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7