Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production

Mehrdad Arashpour; Ron Wakefield

doi:10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production

Mehrdad Arashpour, Ron Wakefield

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Research › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management
Subtitle of host publication	Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015
Editors	Swapan Saha, Y. X. Zhang, Siamak Yazdani, Amarjit Singh
Place of Publication	Fargo ND USA
Publisher	ISEC Press
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	9780996043717
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7
Publication status	Published - 2015
Externally published	Yes
Event	International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015: Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management - Sydney, Australia Duration: 23 Nov 2015 → 28 Nov 2015 Conference number: 8th

Conference

Conference	International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015
Abbreviated title	ISEC 2015
Country	Australia
City	Sydney
Period	23/11/15 → 28/11/15

Keywords

Construction management
Delays and rework
Hybrid projects
Plan reliability
Simulation and optimization
Site built processes
Workflow analysis

Access to Document

10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

239581998-oaFinal published version, 113 KB

Link to publication in Scopus

Cite this

Arashpour, M., & Wakefield, R. (2015). Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. In S. Saha, Y. X. Zhang, S. Yazdani, & A. Singh (Eds.), Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015 ISEC Press. https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

Arashpour, Mehrdad ; Wakefield, Ron. / Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. editor / Swapan Saha ; Y. X. Zhang ; Siamak Yazdani ; Amarjit Singh. Fargo ND USA : ISEC Press, 2015.

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Arashpour, M & Wakefield, R 2015, Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. in S Saha, YX Zhang, S Yazdani & A Singh (eds), Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. ISEC Press, Fargo ND USA, International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference 2015, Sydney, Australia, 23/11/15. https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7

Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. / Arashpour, Mehrdad; Wakefield, Ron.

Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. ed. / Swapan Saha; Y. X. Zhang; Siamak Yazdani; Amarjit Singh. Fargo ND USA : ISEC Press, 2015.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Research › peer-review

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AB - The hybrid use of off-site and on-site processes in construction projects has increased significantly over the past decade. The analysis and management of uncertainty in hybrid projects is not a trivial task as workflow variability in off-site and on-site operations can interact and amplify one another. The aim of this paper is to analyze various drivers of uncertainty such as high levels of project complexity, risk seeking behaviors, unavailability of resources, and combined variability in hybrid projects. Production data of two Australian construction companies were collected and utilized in modeling uncertainty. Findings show the significant effect of uncertainty drivers on project plan reliability and the necessity of an adequate uncertainty analysis and management in hybrid projects. The results of this study enhance the knowledge about management of hybrid projects and have the potential to improve the way construction companies deal with uncertainty in project environments.

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KW - Simulation and optimization

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Arashpour M, Wakefield R. Developing an uncertainty analysis model for off-site building production. In Saha S, Zhang YX, Yazdani S, Singh A, editors, Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management : Proceedings of the Eighth International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 23-28, 2015. Fargo ND USA: ISEC Press. 2015 https://doi.org/10.14455 / ISEC.res.2015.7