Developing a generic biosecurity risk assessment model for imports

L. E. Jamieson, O. Woodberry, C. M. McDonald, M. Ormsby

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods. We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point, given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways. The model has a number of sub-models, including: entry pathway, which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread, which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences, which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site. Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative 'what-if' scenarios and to test the model on real-world plant pest inputs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)186-199
Number of pages14
JournalNew Zealand Plant Protection
Publication statusPublished - 8 Jan 2016
Externally publishedYes


  • Bayesian network
  • Biosecurity
  • Plant import pathways
  • Risk assessment

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