Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria

David A. Keith, Michael Mahony, Harry Hines, Jane Elith, Tracey J. Regan, John B. Baumgartner, David Hunter, Geoffrey W. Heard, Nicola J. Mitchell, Kirsten M. Parris, Trent Penman, Ben Scheele, Christopher C. Simpson, Reid Tingley, Christopher R. Tracy, Matt West, H. Resit Akçakaya

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)810-819
Number of pages10
JournalConservation Biology
Volume28
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Amphibian
  • Frog
  • Population model
  • Risk assessment
  • Species distribution model
  • Threatened species

Cite this

Keith, D. A., Mahony, M., Hines, H., Elith, J., Regan, T. J., Baumgartner, J. B., ... Akçakaya, H. R. (2014). Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria. Conservation Biology, 28(3), 810-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12234
Keith, David A. ; Mahony, Michael ; Hines, Harry ; Elith, Jane ; Regan, Tracey J. ; Baumgartner, John B. ; Hunter, David ; Heard, Geoffrey W. ; Mitchell, Nicola J. ; Parris, Kirsten M. ; Penman, Trent ; Scheele, Ben ; Simpson, Christopher C. ; Tingley, Reid ; Tracy, Christopher R. ; West, Matt ; Akçakaya, H. Resit. / Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria. In: Conservation Biology. 2014 ; Vol. 28, No. 3. pp. 810-819.
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Keith, DA, Mahony, M, Hines, H, Elith, J, Regan, TJ, Baumgartner, JB, Hunter, D, Heard, GW, Mitchell, NJ, Parris, KM, Penman, T, Scheele, B, Simpson, CC, Tingley, R, Tracy, CR, West, M & Akçakaya, HR 2014, 'Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria', Conservation Biology, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 810-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12234

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria. / Keith, David A.; Mahony, Michael; Hines, Harry; Elith, Jane; Regan, Tracey J.; Baumgartner, John B.; Hunter, David; Heard, Geoffrey W.; Mitchell, Nicola J.; Parris, Kirsten M.; Penman, Trent; Scheele, Ben; Simpson, Christopher C.; Tingley, Reid; Tracy, Christopher R.; West, Matt; Akçakaya, H. Resit.

In: Conservation Biology, Vol. 28, No. 3, 01.01.2014, p. 810-819.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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AU - Regan, Tracey J.

AU - Baumgartner, John B.

AU - Hunter, David

AU - Heard, Geoffrey W.

AU - Mitchell, Nicola J.

AU - Parris, Kirsten M.

AU - Penman, Trent

AU - Scheele, Ben

AU - Simpson, Christopher C.

AU - Tingley, Reid

AU - Tracy, Christopher R.

AU - West, Matt

AU - Akçakaya, H. Resit

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Keith DA, Mahony M, Hines H, Elith J, Regan TJ, Baumgartner JB et al. Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria. Conservation Biology. 2014 Jan 1;28(3):810-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12234