Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power; Matthieu Lengaigne; Antonietta Capotondi; Myriam Khodri; Jérôme Vialard; Beyrem Jebri; Eric Guilyardi; Shayne McGregor; Jong Seong Kug; Matthew Newman; Michael J. McPhaden; Gerald Meehl; Doug Smith; Julia Cole; Julien Emile-Geay; Daniel Vimont; Andrew T. Wittenberg; Mat Collins; Geon Il Kim; Wenju Cai; Yuko Okumura; Christine Chung; Kim M. Cobb; François Delage; Yann Y. Planton; Aaron Levine; Feng Zhu; Janet Sprintall; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Xuebin Zhang; Jing Jia Luo; Xiaopei Lin; Magdalena Balmaseda; Guojian Wang; Benjamin J. Henley

doi:10.1126/science.aay9165

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power, Matthieu Lengaigne, Antonietta Capotondi, Myriam Khodri, Jérôme Vialard, Beyrem Jebri, Eric Guilyardi, Shayne McGregor, Jong Seong Kug, Matthew Newman, Michael J. McPhaden, Gerald Meehl, Doug Smith, Julia Cole, Julien Emile-Geay, Daniel Vimont, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Mat Collins, Geon Il Kim, Wenju CaiYuko Okumura, Christine Chung, Kim M. Cobb, François Delage, Yann Y. Planton, Aaron Levine, Feng Zhu, Janet Sprintall, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Xuebin Zhang, Jing Jia Luo, Xiaopei Lin, Magdalena Balmaseda, Guojian Wang, Benjamin J. Henley

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review Article › Research › peer-review

157 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Original language	English
Article number	eaay9165
Number of pages	10
Journal	Science
Volume	374
Issue number	6563
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1126/science.aay9165

Cite this

Power, S., Lengaigne, M., Capotondi, A., Khodri, M., Vialard, J., Jebri, B., Guilyardi, E., McGregor, S., Kug, J. S., Newman, M., McPhaden, M. J., Meehl, G., Smith, D., Cole, J., Emile-Geay, J., Vimont, D., Wittenberg, A. T., Collins, M., Kim, G. I., ... Henley, B. J. (2021). Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects. Science, 374(6563), Article eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

@article{cf801f5f98354cf8b94bdaea04ebce65,

title = "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects",

abstract = "Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.",

author = "Scott Power and Matthieu Lengaigne and Antonietta Capotondi and Myriam Khodri and J{\'e}r{\^o}me Vialard and Beyrem Jebri and Eric Guilyardi and Shayne McGregor and Kug, {Jong Seong} and Matthew Newman and McPhaden, {Michael J.} and Gerald Meehl and Doug Smith and Julia Cole and Julien Emile-Geay and Daniel Vimont and Wittenberg, {Andrew T.} and Mat Collins and Kim, {Geon Il} and Wenju Cai and Yuko Okumura and Christine Chung and Cobb, {Kim M.} and Fran{\c c}ois Delage and Planton, {Yann Y.} and Aaron Levine and Feng Zhu and Janet Sprintall and {Di Lorenzo}, Emanuele and Xuebin Zhang and Luo, {Jing Jia} and Xiaopei Lin and Magdalena Balmaseda and Guojian Wang and Henley, {Benjamin J.}",

note = "Funding Information: S.P., W.C., F.D., and C.C. were partially supported by the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian National Environmental Science Programme. W.C., G.W., and X.Z. were supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research center between QNLM and CSIRO. M.L., J.V., and E.G. were supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche ARISE project, under grant ANR-18-CE01-0012; the Belmont project GOTHAM, under grant ANR-15-JCLI-0004-01; and the Make Our Planet Great Again project ARCHANGE, under grant ANR-18-MPGA-0001. A.C. was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office?s Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) and Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) programs. S.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council through grant FT160100162 and DP200102329. M.C. was supported by the UK?s Natural Environment Research Council, grants NE/N018486/1 and NE/N005783/1. This is PMEL contribution no. 5031. G.M. was partially supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy?s Office of Biological and Environmental Research through National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1844590 and by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. S.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council through grant FT160100162 and DP20. Y.O. was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office?s MAPP program (NA17OAR4310149) and the NSF Physical Oceanography Program (OCE-1756883). M.N. was partially supported by US Department of Energy grant no. 0000238382. J.J.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 42088101 and 42030605). D.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and DEFRA. J.-S.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958). J.S. was supported by NOAA's Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through award NA20OAR4320278. B.J.H. was supported by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP150100062). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2021",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1126/science.aay9165",

language = "English",

volume = "374",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",

number = "6563",

}

Power, S, Lengaigne, M, Capotondi, A, Khodri, M, Vialard, J, Jebri, B, Guilyardi, E, McGregor, S, Kug, JS, Newman, M, McPhaden, MJ, Meehl, G, Smith, D, Cole, J, Emile-Geay, J, Vimont, D, Wittenberg, AT, Collins, M, Kim, GI, Cai, W, Okumura, Y, Chung, C, Cobb, KM, Delage, F, Planton, YY, Levine, A, Zhu, F, Sprintall, J, Di Lorenzo, E, Zhang, X, Luo, JJ, Lin, X, Balmaseda, M, Wang, G & Henley, BJ 2021, 'Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects', Science, vol. 374, no. 6563, eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific

T2 - Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

AU - Power, Scott

AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu

AU - Capotondi, Antonietta

AU - Khodri, Myriam

AU - Vialard, Jérôme

AU - Jebri, Beyrem

AU - Guilyardi, Eric

AU - McGregor, Shayne

AU - Kug, Jong Seong

AU - Newman, Matthew

AU - McPhaden, Michael J.

AU - Meehl, Gerald

AU - Smith, Doug

AU - Cole, Julia

AU - Emile-Geay, Julien

AU - Vimont, Daniel

AU - Wittenberg, Andrew T.

AU - Collins, Mat

AU - Kim, Geon Il

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Okumura, Yuko

AU - Chung, Christine

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Delage, François

AU - Planton, Yann Y.

AU - Levine, Aaron

AU - Zhu, Feng

AU - Sprintall, Janet

AU - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

AU - Zhang, Xuebin

AU - Luo, Jing Jia

AU - Lin, Xiaopei

AU - Balmaseda, Magdalena

AU - Wang, Guojian

AU - Henley, Benjamin J.

N1 - Funding Information: S.P., W.C., F.D., and C.C. were partially supported by the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian National Environmental Science Programme. W.C., G.W., and X.Z. were supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research center between QNLM and CSIRO. M.L., J.V., and E.G. were supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche ARISE project, under grant ANR-18-CE01-0012; the Belmont project GOTHAM, under grant ANR-15-JCLI-0004-01; and the Make Our Planet Great Again project ARCHANGE, under grant ANR-18-MPGA-0001. A.C. was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office?s Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) and Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) programs. S.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council through grant FT160100162 and DP200102329. M.C. was supported by the UK?s Natural Environment Research Council, grants NE/N018486/1 and NE/N005783/1. This is PMEL contribution no. 5031. G.M. was partially supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy?s Office of Biological and Environmental Research through National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1844590 and by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. S.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council through grant FT160100162 and DP20. Y.O. was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office?s MAPP program (NA17OAR4310149) and the NSF Physical Oceanography Program (OCE-1756883). M.N. was partially supported by US Department of Energy grant no. 0000238382. J.J.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 42088101 and 42030605). D.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and DEFRA. J.-S.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958). J.S. was supported by NOAA's Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through award NA20OAR4320278. B.J.H. was supported by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP150100062). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/10/1

Y1 - 2021/10/1

N2 - Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

AB - Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116369103&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.aay9165

DO - 10.1126/science.aay9165

M3 - Review Article

AN - SCOPUS:85116369103

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 374

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6563

M1 - eaay9165

ER -

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia

Cite this

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia

Cite this