Cyclone damage assessment considering non-stationarity in cyclone actions

The intensity and/or frequency of cyclone storms may change due to the impact of potential climate change. This paper presents a probabilistic framework to assess the cyclone damage to residential constructions considering the non-stationarity in cyclone actions. The framework includes a non-stationary Poisson process of cyclone occurrence, a failure rate function of cyclone damage, and explicit formulas for evaluating the mean and variance of annual cyclone damage. The framework is illustrated using a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, where the current probabilistic models of cyclone intensity and occurrence rate were estimated by examining cyclone history in that area. The impacts of time-variant cyclone intensity and time-variant cyclone frequency on building damage are assessed using the developed framework.