Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism

Nikolaos Kourentzes, George Athanasopoulos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be ‘coherent’ that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources. This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecast, a special selection of research in this field.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)393-409
Number of pages17
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume75
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2019

Keywords

  • Cross-sectional aggregation
  • Forecast combinations
  • Spatial correlations
  • Temporal aggregation

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