Cross-Project Change-Proneness prediction

Software change-proneness prediction (whether or not class files in a project will be changed in the next release) can help software developers to focus on preventive actions to reduce maintenance costs, and managers to allocate resources more effectively. Prior studies found that change-proneness prediction works well if there is sufficient amount of training data to build a model. However, it is not feasible for projects with limited historical data especially for new projects. To address this issue, cross-project change-proneness prediction, which builds a prediction model by using data in another project (i.e., source project), and predicts the change-proneness in a target project, is proposed. Considering there are a large number of source projects, one challenge for cross-project change-proneness prediction is that given a target project, how to automatically select a source project which could show good prediction accuracy on it. In this paper, we propose a selective cross-project (SCP) model for change-proneness prediction. SCP automatically finds the source project which has the similar data distribution with the target project by measuring distribution similarity between source and target projects. We evaluate SCP by conducting an empirical study on 14 open source projects. We compare it with 2 most related change-proneness models, including RCP (Random Cross-Project prediction) proposed by Malhotra and Bansal, and CLAMI+ developed by Yan et al. Experiment results show that SCP improves RCP and CLAMI+ by 25.34% and 4.30% in terms of AUC respectively; and by 171.42% and 172.31% in terms of cost-effectiveness, respectively.