Crime, weather and climate change in Australia

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Russell Smyth, Trong-Anh Trinh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime using a panel dataset that matches weather with crime rates for over 3,000 postcodes in Australia over the period 2001–2019. We find that a standard deviation increase in average temperature is associated with a 0.008–0.011 standard deviation increase in the crime rate, depending on the specification. This translates to over 72,000 additional crimes per year across Australia. We estimate that over the course of the rest of the century, under a business-as-usual pathway, climate change will be responsible for approximately 1.64 million additional crimes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)84-107
Number of pages24
JournalEconomic Record
Volume99
Issue number324
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2023

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