TY - JOUR
T1 - Copula-based risk evaluation of global meteorological drought in the 21st century based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections
AU - Wu, Chuanhao
AU - J.-F. Yeh, Pat
AU - Chen, Yi-Ying
AU - Lv, Wenhan
AU - Hu, Bill X.
AU - Huang, Guoru
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51909106, 51879108), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (Grant No. 2020A1515011038, 2018A030310653), The high-level talent project for the “Pearl River Talent Plan” of Guangdong Province (Grant No. 2017GC010397), the Youth Innovative Talents Project for Guangdong Colleges and Universities (Grant No. 2017KQNCX010), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 21617301). Monthly precipitation data from 28 CMIP5 GCMs were provided by the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS, available at http://climatescenarios.canada.ca/?page = main) . Global gridded (0.5°×0.5°) monthly precipitation data were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS 3.22, available at https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/ ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - Climate warming is expected to have significant impacts on the global hydrologic cycle, including changes in precipitation-induced extremes such as droughts. Using 28 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), this study presents a global-scale analysis of the joint return periods (T) of meteorological drought characteristics (duration D, severity S, and peak P) at the 6- and 12-month scales under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The D, S, and P estimated based on the Runs theory are used to calculated from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at the global 1° × 1° grids. Six marginal probability distributions are used to fit S, P and D, whereas three Archimedean copula functions (Clayton, GH and Frank) are used to estimate T for the paired drought characteristics (S-D, P-D and S-P). Large spatial variability is found globally in the best-fitted copulas for the paired drought characteristics, with the Frank (Frank and GH) of the largest global percentage for SPI6 (SPI12). Relative to the baseline (1971–2000), the T of the paired drought characteristics above the moderate drought (S > 1, P > 1 and D > 3) is projected to decrease mostly in North America and Asia (<0.22-year) during the 2021–2050 near-future (NF) period, and in South America and Australia (<0.47-year) during the 2071–2100 far-future (FF) period. In contrast, an increase in T is projected during NF (<3-year) mostly in South America and Australia, and during FF (<49-year) mostly in Asia, Europe and North America. Furthermore, a larger increase in T is projected under higher RCP and at longer timescales. Our results suggest a generally nonlinear response of the projected drought risk changes to anthropogenic forcing during the 21st century.
AB - Climate warming is expected to have significant impacts on the global hydrologic cycle, including changes in precipitation-induced extremes such as droughts. Using 28 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), this study presents a global-scale analysis of the joint return periods (T) of meteorological drought characteristics (duration D, severity S, and peak P) at the 6- and 12-month scales under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The D, S, and P estimated based on the Runs theory are used to calculated from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at the global 1° × 1° grids. Six marginal probability distributions are used to fit S, P and D, whereas three Archimedean copula functions (Clayton, GH and Frank) are used to estimate T for the paired drought characteristics (S-D, P-D and S-P). Large spatial variability is found globally in the best-fitted copulas for the paired drought characteristics, with the Frank (Frank and GH) of the largest global percentage for SPI6 (SPI12). Relative to the baseline (1971–2000), the T of the paired drought characteristics above the moderate drought (S > 1, P > 1 and D > 3) is projected to decrease mostly in North America and Asia (<0.22-year) during the 2021–2050 near-future (NF) period, and in South America and Australia (<0.47-year) during the 2071–2100 far-future (FF) period. In contrast, an increase in T is projected during NF (<3-year) mostly in South America and Australia, and during FF (<49-year) mostly in Asia, Europe and North America. Furthermore, a larger increase in T is projected under higher RCP and at longer timescales. Our results suggest a generally nonlinear response of the projected drought risk changes to anthropogenic forcing during the 21st century.
KW - CMIP5
KW - Copula
KW - Global projection
KW - Joint return period
KW - Meteorological droughts
KW - SPI
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104147491&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126265
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126265
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85104147491
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 598
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
M1 - 126265
ER -