Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

B. D. Santer; M. F. Wehner; T. M L Wigley; R. Sausen; G. A. Meehl; K. E. Taylor; C. Ammann; J. Arblaster; W. M. Washington; J. S. Boyle; W. Brüggemann

doi:10.1126/science.1084123

Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

B. D. Santer, M. F. Wehner, T. M L Wigley, R. Sausen, G. A. Meehl, K. E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W. M. Washington, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann

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388 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause - the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere - has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for ∼80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	479-483
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	301
Issue number	5632
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084123
Publication status	Published - 25 Jul 2003
Externally published	Yes

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10.1126/science.1084123

Cite this

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abstract = "Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause - the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere - has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for ∼80\% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ({"}reanalysis{"}) data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.",

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T1 - Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

AU - Santer, B. D.

AU - Wehner, M. F.

AU - Wigley, T. M L

AU - Sausen, R.

AU - Meehl, G. A.

AU - Taylor, K. E.

AU - Ammann, C.

AU - Arblaster, J.

AU - Washington, W. M.

AU - Boyle, J. S.

AU - Brüggemann, W.

PY - 2003/7/25

Y1 - 2003/7/25

N2 - Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause - the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere - has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for ∼80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.

AB - Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause - the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere - has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for ∼80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.

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Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes

Abstract

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