Conditional survival of patients with metastatic testicular germ cell tumors treated with first-line curative therapy

Jenny J. Ko, Brandon Bernard, Ben Tran, Haocheng Li, Tehmina Asif, Igor Stukalin, Margaret Lee, Daphne Day, Nimira Alimohamed, Christopher J. Sweeney, Philippe L. Bedard, Daniel Y.C. Heng

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32 Citations (Scopus)


Purpose: The International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) criteria prognosticate survival outcomes in metastatic testicular germ cell tumor (MT-GCT), but how the initial risk changes over time for those who survived since curative treatment is unknown. Patients and Methods: We assessed patients eligible for first-line therapy for MT-GCT at five tertiary cancer centers from 1990 to 2012 for 2-year conditional overall survival (COS) and conditional disease-free survival (CDFS), defined as the probability of surviving, or surviving and being disease free, respectively, for an additional 2 years at a given time point since the initial diagnosis. Results: For all patients (N=942), 2-year COS increased from 92% (95% CI, 91% to 94%) at 0 months to 98% (95% CI, 97% to 99%), and 2-year CDFS increased from 83% (95% CI, 81% to 86%) at baseline to 98% (95% CI, 97% to 99%) at 24 months after diagnosis. Two-year COS improved by 2% (97% at 0 months, 99% at 24 months) in the IGCCCG favorable-risk group, by 5% (94% at 0 months, 99% at 24 months) in the intermediate-risk group, and by 22% (71% at 0 months to 93% at 24 months) in the poor-risk group. Two-year CDFS improved significantly at 12 months for each risk group (favorable, 91% baseline v 95% at 12 months; intermediate, 84% v 95%; poor, 55% v 85%). Baseline IGCCCG risk stratification was not associated with long-term COS or CDFS for patients who survived to greater than 2 years post therapy. No significant differences in COS and CDFS were noted between seminoma and nonseminoma; patients $ 40 years old had inferior 2-year COS from 0 to 12 months, but no differences were noted at 18 months. Conclusion: Our data suggest that the concept of conditional survival applies to patients with MT-GCT treated with curative therapy. Patients with MT-GCT who survived and remained disease free more than 2 years after the diagnosis had an excellent chance of staying alive and disease free in additional subsequent years, regardless of the initial IGCCCG risk stratification.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)714-720
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Clinical Oncology
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2016
Externally publishedYes

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