Concentration and variability of forecasts in artificial investment games: an online experiment on WeChat

Xiu Chen, Fuhai Hong, Xiaojian Zhao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper is the first to use the WeChat platform, one of the largest social networks, to conduct an online experiment of artificial investment games. We investigate how people’s forecasts about the financial market and investment decisions are shaped by whether they can observe others’ forecasts and whether they engage in public or private investment decisions. We find that with forecast sharing, subjects’ forecasts converge but in different directions across groups; consequently, forecast sharing does not lead to better forecasts nor more individually rational investment decisions. Whether or not subjects engage in public investment decisions does not significantly affect forecasts or investment.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages33
JournalExperimental Economics
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019

Keywords

  • Forecast
  • Investment
  • Online experiment
  • WeChat

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