Computational assessment of COVID-19 time series using ARIMA models: comparative analysis of new cases, vaccination rates, booster doses, and mortality trends

Mogana Darshini Ganggayah, Ruben Rajandaran, Nurul Aqilah Mohd Nor, Nurhasniza Idham Abu Hasan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperOtherpeer-review


Coronavirus Disease, COVID-19 has had a crucial effect on both worldwide health and economies, underscoring the importance of examining the time-based trends of essential metrics. This research presents a comprehensive time series analysis of COVID-19 data in Malaysia starting March 2020 until May 2023, specifically focusing on new cases, vaccination rates, booster doses, mortality rates and ICU patients’ trends during pre- and post-vaccination. The study employs a time series ARIMA model to investigate the interrelationships and dynamics among these variables during the pandemic. The study utilizes a publicly available real-time dataset from Our World in Data platform, providing a detailed and comparative analysis of the different variables. The study findings reveal significant correlations between the variables, shedding light on the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, the impact of booster doses, and their influence on reducing new cases and mortality rates. The mortality rates and ICU patients count reduce gradually with the implementation of the vaccination program. The quantity of new Covid19 cases reduces gradually with the increasing number of fully-vaccinated individuals followed by booster doses. This research enhances our comprehension of the ever-changing COVID-19 situation and guides decision-making based on solid evidence to effectively reduce the future impact of COVID-19.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe 4th International Conference on Applied Computing 2023, ICAC 2023
Place of PublicationHong Kong China
Number of pages11
Publication statusPublished - 11 Dec 2023
EventInternational Conference on Applied Computing 2023 - Sunway Big Box Hotel, Iskandar Putri, Johor, Johor, Malaysia
Duration: 21 Aug 202322 Aug 2023
Conference number: 4th

Publication series

NameProceedings: Computer Science
PublisherELS Publishing
ISSN (Print)2959-295X
ISSN (Electronic)2959-2968


ConferenceInternational Conference on Applied Computing 2023
Abbreviated titleICAC 2023
Internet address


  • Arima model
  • Time series analysis
  • Vaccination rate
  • Booster doses
  • CoVID-19
  • ICU patients
  • Malaysia

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