Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Bo Wen; Yao Wu; Yuming Guo; Antonio Gasparrini; Shilu Tong; Ala Overcenco; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Alireza Entezari; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Antonella Zanobetti; Antonis Analitis; Ariana Zeka; Aurelio Tobias; Baltazar Nunes; Barrak Alahmad; Ben Armstrong; Bertil Forsberg; Shih Chun Pan; Carmen Íñiguez; Caroline Ameling; César De la Cruz Valencia; Christofer Åström; Danny Houthuijs; Do Van Dung; Dominic Royé; Ene Indermitte; Eric Lavigne; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Fiorella Acquaotta; Francesca de'Donato; Shilpa Rao; Francesco Sera; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Haidong Kan; Hans Orru; Ho Kim; Iulian Horia Holobaca; Jan Kyselý; Joana Madureira; Joel Schwartz; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Klea Katsouyanni; Magali Hurtado Diaz; Martina S. Ragettli; Masahiro Hashizume; Mathilde Pascal; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Niilo Ryti; Noah Scovronick; Paola Michelozzi; Patricia Matus Correa; Patrick Goodman; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Raanan Raz; Rosana Abrutzky; Samuel Osorio; Tran Ngoc Dang; Valentina Colistro; Veronika Huber; Whanhee Lee; Xerxes Seposo; Yasushi Honda; Yoonhee Kim; Yue Leon Guo; Michelle L. Bell; Shanshan Li

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Bo Wen, Yao Wu, Yuming Guo (Leading Author), Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Ala Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonella Zanobetti, Antonis Analitis, Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Ben Armstrong, Bertil Forsberg, Shih Chun Pan, Carmen ÍñiguezCaroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Christofer Åström, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Dominic Royé, Ene Indermitte, Eric Lavigne, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Fiorella Acquaotta, Francesca de'Donato, Shilpa Rao, Francesco Sera, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Haidong Kan, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, Joana Madureira, Joel Schwartz, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Martina S. Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Mathilde Pascal, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Paola Michelozzi, Patricia Matus Correa, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Raanan Raz, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yoonhee Kim, Yue Leon Guo, Michelle L. Bell, Shanshan Li (Leading Author)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV_0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV_0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV_0–7 and inter-day TV_0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Original language	English
Article number	108712
Number of pages	13
Journal	Environment International
Volume	187
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712
Publication status	Published - May 2024

Keywords

Inter-day
Intra-day
Mortality
Temperature variability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712Licence: CC BY

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Wen, B., Wu, Y., Guo, Y., Gasparrini, A., Tong, S., Overcenco, A., Urban, A., Schneider, A., Entezari, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Zanobetti, A., Analitis, A., Zeka, A., Tobias, A., Nunes, B., Alahmad, B., Armstrong, B., Forsberg, B., Pan, S. C., ... Li, S. (2024). Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study. Environment International, 187, Article 108712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

@article{84a0631530434d69a132cec103f0d0e8,

title = "Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study",

abstract = "Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.",

keywords = "Inter-day, Intra-day, Mortality, Temperature variability",

author = "Bo Wen and Yao Wu and Yuming Guo and Antonio Gasparrini and Shilu Tong and Ala Overcenco and Ale{\v s} Urban and Alexandra Schneider and Alireza Entezari and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana Maria} and Antonella Zanobetti and Antonis Analitis and Ariana Zeka and Aurelio Tobias and Baltazar Nunes and Barrak Alahmad and Ben Armstrong and Bertil Forsberg and Pan, {Shih Chun} and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Caroline Ameling and Valencia, {C{\'e}sar De la Cruz} and Christofer {\AA}str{\"o}m and Danny Houthuijs and {Van Dung}, Do and Dominic Roy{\'e} and Ene Indermitte and Eric Lavigne and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Fiorella Acquaotta and Francesca de'Donato and Shilpa Rao and Francesco Sera and Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar and Haidong Kan and Hans Orru and Ho Kim and Holobaca, {Iulian Horia} and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Joana Madureira and Joel Schwartz and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Klea Katsouyanni and Diaz, {Magali Hurtado} and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Masahiro Hashizume and Mathilde Pascal and Co{\'e}lho, {Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio} and Ortega, {Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s} and Niilo Ryti and Noah Scovronick and Paola Michelozzi and {Matus Correa}, Patricia and Patrick Goodman and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Raanan Raz and Rosana Abrutzky and Samuel Osorio and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and Valentina Colistro and Veronika Huber and Whanhee Lee and Xerxes Seposo and Yasushi Honda and Yoonhee Kim and Guo, {Yue Leon} and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Shanshan Li",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). BW by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010043); WY by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010044); SL by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number GNT2009866); JK and AU by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 20\u201328560S); NS by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); S-CP and YLG by the Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan; MOST 109\u20132621-M-002\u2013021); YH by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; MdSZSC and PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); HO and EI by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34\u201317); JM by a fellowship of Funda\u00E7\u00E3o para a Ci\u00EAncia e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); AG by the Medical Research Council UK (grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID: NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655); AS, SR, and FdD by the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); VH by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017\u2013046); AT by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S); YG by Career Development Fellowship (number GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (number GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; Statistics South Africa kindly provided the mortality data, but had no other role in the study. This Article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024",

year = "2024",

month = may,

doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712",

language = "English",

volume = "187",

journal = "Environment International",

issn = "0160-4120",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Wen, B , Wu, Y , Guo, Y, Gasparrini, A, Tong, S, Overcenco, A, Urban, A, Schneider, A, Entezari, A, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Zanobetti, A, Analitis, A, Zeka, A, Tobias, A, Nunes, B, Alahmad, B, Armstrong, B, Forsberg, B, Pan, SC, Íñiguez, C, Ameling, C, Valencia, CDLC, Åström, C, Houthuijs, D, Van Dung, D, Royé, D, Indermitte, E, Lavigne, E, Mayvaneh, F, Acquaotta, F, de'Donato, F, Rao, S, Sera, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Kan, H, Orru, H, Kim, H, Holobaca, IH, Kyselý, J, Madureira, J, Schwartz, J, Jaakkola, JJK, Katsouyanni, K, Diaz, MH, Ragettli, MS, Hashizume, M, Pascal, M, Coélho, MDSZS, Ortega, NV, Ryti, N, Scovronick, N, Michelozzi, P, Matus Correa, P, Goodman, P, Saldiva, PHN, Raz, R, Abrutzky, R, Osorio, S, Dang, TN, Colistro, V, Huber, V, Lee, W, Seposo, X, Honda, Y, Kim, Y, Guo, YL, Bell, ML & Li, S 2024, 'Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study', Environment International, vol. 187, 108712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality

T2 - A multi-country time-series study

AU - Wen, Bo

AU - Wu, Yao

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - Valencia, César De la Cruz

AU - Åström, Christofer

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Royé, Dominic

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - de'Donato, Francesca

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Matus Correa, Patricia

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Raz, Raanan

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Kim, Yoonhee

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

A2 - Guo, Yuming

A2 - Li, Shanshan

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). BW by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010043); WY by China Scholarship Council (number 202006010044); SL by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (number GNT2009866); JK and AU by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 20\u201328560S); NS by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); S-CP and YLG by the Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan; MOST 109\u20132621-M-002\u2013021); YH by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11412) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; MdSZSC and PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); HO and EI by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT34\u201317); JM by a fellowship of Funda\u00E7\u00E3o para a Ci\u00EAncia e a Tecnlogia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); AG by the Medical Research Council UK (grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID: NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID: 820655); AS, SR, and FdD by the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); VH by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant ID PCIN-2017\u2013046); AT by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S); YG by Career Development Fellowship (number GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (number GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; Statistics South Africa kindly provided the mortality data, but had no other role in the study. This Article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Publisher Copyright: © 2024

PY - 2024/5

Y1 - 2024/5

N2 - Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

AB - Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

KW - Inter-day

KW - Intra-day

KW - Mortality

KW - Temperature variability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85192145675&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712

M3 - Article

C2 - 38714028

AN - SCOPUS:85192145675

SN - 0160-4120

VL - 187

JO - Environment International

JF - Environment International

M1 - 108712

ER -

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

New Knowledge and Research Capacity for Health Impacts of Global Environmental Change with Big Data, Novel Approach and New Technology

Multi-Country Study on Health Effects of Bushfire Air Pollution

Climate Change and Human Health in Asia: Current Impacts, Future Risks, and Health Benefits of Mitigation Policies

Cite this