Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng, Julie M. Arblaster

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164 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)898-902
Number of pages5
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume4
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
Externally publishedYes

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