TY - JOUR
T1 - Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?
AU - Kopányi, Dávid
AU - Rabanal Sobrino, Jean Paul
AU - Rud, Olga A.
AU - Tuinstra, Jan
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - We conduct a learning to forecast asset pricing experiment that assumes that financial advisors and professional forecasters attract more investors when their price forecasts are more accurate. The competition between forecasters implies that the impact of their forecasts on realized market prices evolves endogenously. We investigate how these endogenous impacts affect price dispersion and mispricing relative to the fundamental price. Our results show that the effect of endogenous impacts depends on (i) the type of market dynamics (stable/unstable) and (ii) the sensitivity of impacts with respect to forecast accuracy (low/high). Compared to the baseline treatment, where impacts are constant and independent of forecast accuracy, price dispersion and mispricing is somewhat lower in stable markets when impacts are moderately sensitive to forecast accuracy. In contrast, impacts that are strongly sensitive to forecast accuracy can further destabilize unstable markets, amplifying price dispersion and mispricing.
AB - We conduct a learning to forecast asset pricing experiment that assumes that financial advisors and professional forecasters attract more investors when their price forecasts are more accurate. The competition between forecasters implies that the impact of their forecasts on realized market prices evolves endogenously. We investigate how these endogenous impacts affect price dispersion and mispricing relative to the fundamental price. Our results show that the effect of endogenous impacts depends on (i) the type of market dynamics (stable/unstable) and (ii) the sensitivity of impacts with respect to forecast accuracy (low/high). Compared to the baseline treatment, where impacts are constant and independent of forecast accuracy, price dispersion and mispricing is somewhat lower in stable markets when impacts are moderately sensitive to forecast accuracy. In contrast, impacts that are strongly sensitive to forecast accuracy can further destabilize unstable markets, amplifying price dispersion and mispricing.
KW - Asset pricing
KW - Expectation formation
KW - Experimental finance
KW - Learning to forecast
KW - Market impact
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073156535&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103770
DO - 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103770
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85073156535
VL - 109
JO - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
JF - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
SN - 0165-1889
M1 - 103770
ER -