Biomarkers-Based Cost-Effectiveness of Toripalimab Plus Chemotherapy for Patients with Treatment-Naive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Introduction: This study examined the cost-effectiveness of first-line toripalimab plus chemotherapy (TC) for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), excluding patients with nonsquamous NSCLC and EGFR/ALK mutations. It further analyzed the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in biomarker-based subgroups, all within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods: Eighteen Markov models with 21-day Markov cycle lengths and 30-year time horizons were constructed in this study. Clinical effectiveness data were derived from the CHOICE-01 trial. Health state utilities and costs data were obtained from various sources. The primary outputs were the calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), which were then compared to a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $17,961 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). This comparison was used to determine the treatment that offered greater cost-effectiveness. To account for uncertainty in the model, sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: For the overall patient population, the estimated ICER between first-line TC and placebo plus chemotherapy (PC) was $9445/QALY, significantly lower than the WTP threshold used in the model. In subgroups based on pathologic types, first-line TC had an ICER of $16,757/QALY for patients with nonsquamous NSCLC, slightly below the WTP threshold; first-line TC demonstrated dominance in patients with squamous NSCLC, indicating both better effectiveness and lower costs compared to first-line PC. In biomarkers-based subgroups, first-line TC was dominant over first-line PC in the subgroups with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression ≥ 50% and SMARCA4 mutations. Moreover, first-line TC had ICERs lower than the WTP threshold in other subgroups, except for the subgroup with RB1 mutations. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Conclusion: From the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system, this study’s findings suggested that first-line TC represents a cost-effective strategy for patients with advanced NSCLC. However, the cost-effectiveness of first-line TC varied across different subgroups when considering predictive biomarkers.