Auswirkungen und Perspektiven der Ökologischen Steuerreform in Deutschland: Eine modellgestützte Analyse

A first systematic, model-based analysis of the environmental fiscal reform in Germany is undertaken with an econometric model and an empirical general equilibrium model. It indicates moderate but slightly positive effects on employment, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The influence on economic growth is very low; employment is growing slightly, while energy consumption and CO₂ emissions are decreasing. The sectoral development shows no universal pattern for a structural change to the disadvantage of energy intensive industries and to the benefit of labour intensive branches. The effects on personal income distribution, estimated with a micro simulation model, are moderate. The environmental fiscal reform could play a larger role in climate protection. Weaknesses of the previous concept should be removed gradually.