Projects per year
To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.
|Number of pages||5|
|Journal||Nature Climate Change|
|Publication status||Published - 1 Jun 2017|
- 2 Finished
Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia
Gallant, A., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Nathan, R., Peel, M., Steendam, G. & Tan, K. S.
Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) (Victoria), Melbourne Water Corporation (trading as Melbourne Water) (Victoria), Australian Research Council (ARC), Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (Australia), University of Melbourne, Monash University – Internal School Contribution
1/07/15 → 30/10/20
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Jakob, C., Alexander, L., Bindoff, N., Dommenget, D., England, M. H., Hogg, A., Karoly, D. J., Lane, T. P., Lynch, A., Pitman, A., Roderick, M., Sherwood, S., Steffen, W., Strutton, P., Bony, S., Frederiksen, C., Grabowski, W., Griffies, S., Gupta, H., Hendon, H., Hirst, A., Matear, R., May, P., Peters-Lidard, C., Power, S., Steenman-Clark, L., Stott, P., Sutton, R., Wang, Y. & Whetton, P.
Australian Research Council (ARC)
1/01/11 → 30/06/18