OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of β-amyloid (Aβ) level on progression risk to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia and longitudinal cognitive change in cognitively normal (CN) older individuals. METHODS: All CN from the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle study with Aβ PET and ≥3 years follow-up were included (n = 534; age 72 ± 6 years; 27% Aβ positive; follow-up 5.3 ± 1.7 years). Aβ level was divided using the standardized 0-100 Centiloid scale: <15 CL negative, 15-25 CL uncertain, 26-50 CL moderate, 51-100 CL high, >100 CL very high, noting >25 CL approximates a positive scan. Cox proportional hazards analysis and linear mixed effect models were used to assess risk of progression and cognitive decline. RESULTS: Aβ levels in 63% were negative, 10% uncertain, 10% moderate, 14% high, and 3% very high. Fifty-seven (11%) progressed to MCI or dementia. Compared to negative Aβ, the hazard ratio for progression for moderate Aβ was 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-7.6; p < 0.05), for high was 7.0 (95% CI 3.7-13.3; p < 0.001), and for very high was 11.4 (95% CI 5.1-25.8; p < 0.001). Decline in cognitive composite score was minimal in the moderate group (-0.02 SD/year, p = 0.05), while the high and very high declined substantially (high -0.08 SD/year, p < 0.001; very high -0.35 SD/year, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The risk of MCI or dementia over 5 years in older CN is related to Aβ level on PET, 5% if negative vs 25% if positive but ranging from 12% if 26-50 CL to 28% if 51-100 CL and 50% if >100 CL. This information may be useful for dementia risk counseling and aid design of preclinical AD trials.