Assessment of temperature effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease incidence (0-years) and associated effect modifiers

A 17 cities study in Shandong Province, China, 2007-2012

Lin Zhu, Xianjun Wang, Yuming Guo, Jing Xu, Fuzhong Xue, Yanxun Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Previous studies examining temperature-disease associations of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) mainly focused on a single city. The results demonstrated great heterogeneity. A multi-city study is necessary to better understand temperature risk on the childhood incidence of HFMD and the associated modified factors. Objective: To assess the effect of ambient temperature on childhood HFMD incidence and explore the potential associated effect modifiers in the study area. Methods: Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the 17 cities were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate city-specific effects of temperature on HFMD incidence. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimated city-specific effect. Potential effect modifiers were included in the multivariate meta-regression as meta-predictors. Results: A total of 504,017 childhood HFMD cases were included in the study. The high-incidence period of HFMD was detected in late spring and early summer (April to June). The temperature-disease associations of the 17 cities demonstrated great heterogeneity and the pooled exposure-response curve was an approximately inverted V-shape. Regional indicator, numbers of healthcare institution and annual household income were considered as associated modifiers. Conclusion: Our findings can provide a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD. Different temperature-disease associations among different regions should be considered when formulating and optimizing public health policy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)452-459
Number of pages8
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume551-552
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2016
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Child
  • Hand, foot and mouth disease
  • Multi-city
  • Temperature-disease association

Cite this

@article{7507b703a1f746adbaa66b337da29726,
title = "Assessment of temperature effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease incidence (0-years) and associated effect modifiers: A 17 cities study in Shandong Province, China, 2007-2012",
abstract = "Background: Previous studies examining temperature-disease associations of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) mainly focused on a single city. The results demonstrated great heterogeneity. A multi-city study is necessary to better understand temperature risk on the childhood incidence of HFMD and the associated modified factors. Objective: To assess the effect of ambient temperature on childhood HFMD incidence and explore the potential associated effect modifiers in the study area. Methods: Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the 17 cities were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate city-specific effects of temperature on HFMD incidence. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimated city-specific effect. Potential effect modifiers were included in the multivariate meta-regression as meta-predictors. Results: A total of 504,017 childhood HFMD cases were included in the study. The high-incidence period of HFMD was detected in late spring and early summer (April to June). The temperature-disease associations of the 17 cities demonstrated great heterogeneity and the pooled exposure-response curve was an approximately inverted V-shape. Regional indicator, numbers of healthcare institution and annual household income were considered as associated modifiers. Conclusion: Our findings can provide a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD. Different temperature-disease associations among different regions should be considered when formulating and optimizing public health policy.",
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Assessment of temperature effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease incidence (0-years) and associated effect modifiers : A 17 cities study in Shandong Province, China, 2007-2012. / Zhu, Lin; Wang, Xianjun; Guo, Yuming; Xu, Jing; Xue, Fuzhong; Liu, Yanxun.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 551-552, 01.05.2016, p. 452-459.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessment of temperature effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease incidence (0-years) and associated effect modifiers

T2 - A 17 cities study in Shandong Province, China, 2007-2012

AU - Zhu, Lin

AU - Wang, Xianjun

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Xu, Jing

AU - Xue, Fuzhong

AU - Liu, Yanxun

PY - 2016/5/1

Y1 - 2016/5/1

N2 - Background: Previous studies examining temperature-disease associations of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) mainly focused on a single city. The results demonstrated great heterogeneity. A multi-city study is necessary to better understand temperature risk on the childhood incidence of HFMD and the associated modified factors. Objective: To assess the effect of ambient temperature on childhood HFMD incidence and explore the potential associated effect modifiers in the study area. Methods: Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the 17 cities were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate city-specific effects of temperature on HFMD incidence. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimated city-specific effect. Potential effect modifiers were included in the multivariate meta-regression as meta-predictors. Results: A total of 504,017 childhood HFMD cases were included in the study. The high-incidence period of HFMD was detected in late spring and early summer (April to June). The temperature-disease associations of the 17 cities demonstrated great heterogeneity and the pooled exposure-response curve was an approximately inverted V-shape. Regional indicator, numbers of healthcare institution and annual household income were considered as associated modifiers. Conclusion: Our findings can provide a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD. Different temperature-disease associations among different regions should be considered when formulating and optimizing public health policy.

AB - Background: Previous studies examining temperature-disease associations of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) mainly focused on a single city. The results demonstrated great heterogeneity. A multi-city study is necessary to better understand temperature risk on the childhood incidence of HFMD and the associated modified factors. Objective: To assess the effect of ambient temperature on childhood HFMD incidence and explore the potential associated effect modifiers in the study area. Methods: Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the 17 cities were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate city-specific effects of temperature on HFMD incidence. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimated city-specific effect. Potential effect modifiers were included in the multivariate meta-regression as meta-predictors. Results: A total of 504,017 childhood HFMD cases were included in the study. The high-incidence period of HFMD was detected in late spring and early summer (April to June). The temperature-disease associations of the 17 cities demonstrated great heterogeneity and the pooled exposure-response curve was an approximately inverted V-shape. Regional indicator, numbers of healthcare institution and annual household income were considered as associated modifiers. Conclusion: Our findings can provide a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD. Different temperature-disease associations among different regions should be considered when formulating and optimizing public health policy.

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SN - 0048-9697

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