Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological regime of Aparan reservoir

This study examines hydrological regime of Aparan reservoir and its vulnerability caused by climate change. Statistical models for forecasting of maximum fullness level and water inflow were developed in scope of this study. The developed models and the results derived from Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) model are used for assessment of climate change impact on the Aparan reservoir hydrological regime.The results show high vulnerability to climate change. In particular, the reservoir's maximum fullness water level is expected to decrease in future due to significant temperature increase, and the decrease can reach up to 11m by 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario. By contrast there are high variablity and lower consistency in the results of vulnerability of water inflow and surface runoff depth attributed to the high uncertainties in precipitation projections.