Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia

Comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Shilu Tong, Xiao Yu Wang, Yuming Guo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

46 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results: For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14-1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40-2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56-2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06-1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21-1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions: The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere37500
Number of pages7
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume7
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 24 May 2012
Externally publishedYes

Cite this

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title = "Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia: Comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses",
abstract = "Background: Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results: For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.94) and 1.22 (95{\%} CI: 1.14-1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95{\%} CI: 1.40-2.11) to 1.81 (95{\%} CI: 1.56-2.10) and from 1.14 (95{\%} CI: 1.06-1.23) to 1.28 (95{\%} CI: 1.21-1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions: The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.",
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Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : Comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses. / Tong, Shilu; Wang, Xiao Yu; Guo, Yuming.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 7, No. 5, e37500, 24.05.2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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T1 - Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia

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AB - Background: Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results: For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14-1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40-2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56-2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06-1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21-1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions: The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

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