Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Weiwei Yu, Kerrie Mengersen, Wenbiao Hu, Yuming Guo, Xiaochuan Pan, Shilu Tong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1789-1793
Number of pages5
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Volume159
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2011
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular deaths
  • Lag structure
  • Mortality
  • Temperature
  • The elderly

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