TY - JOUR
T1 - Are drug detection dogs and mass-media campaigns likely to be effective policy responses to psychostimulant use and related harm? Results from an agent-based simulation model
AU - Dray, Anne
AU - Perez, Pascal
AU - Moore, David
AU - Dietze, Paul Mark
AU - Bammer, Gabriele
AU - Jenkinson, Rebecca Anne
AU - Siokou, Christine
AU - Green, Rachael
AU - Hudson, Susan L
AU - Maher, Lisa
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Background: Agent-based simulation models can be used to explore the impact of policy and practice
on drug use and related consequences. In a linked paper (Perez et al., 2011), we described SimAmph,
an agent-based simulation model for exploring the use of psychostimulants and related harm amongst
young Australians.
Methods: In this paper, we use the model to simulate the impact of two policy scenarios on engagement
in drug use and experience of drug-related harm: (i) the use of passive-alert detection (PAD) dogs by
police at public venues and (ii) the introduction of a mass-media drug prevention campaign.
Results: The findings of the first simulation suggest that only very high rates of detection by PAD dogs
reduce the intensity of drug use, and that this decrease is driven mainly by a four-fold increase in negative
health consequences as detection rates rise. In the second simulation, our modelling showed that the
mass-media prevention campaign had little effect on the behaviour and experience of heavier drug users.
However, it led to reductions in the prevalence of health-related conditions amongst moderate drug users
and prevented them from becoming heavier users.
Conclusion: Agent-based modelling has great potential as a tool for exploring the reciprocal relationships
between environments and individuals, and for highlighting how intended changes in one domain of a
system may produce unintended consequences in other domains. The exploration of these linkages is
important in an environment as complex as the drug policy and intervention arena.
AB - Background: Agent-based simulation models can be used to explore the impact of policy and practice
on drug use and related consequences. In a linked paper (Perez et al., 2011), we described SimAmph,
an agent-based simulation model for exploring the use of psychostimulants and related harm amongst
young Australians.
Methods: In this paper, we use the model to simulate the impact of two policy scenarios on engagement
in drug use and experience of drug-related harm: (i) the use of passive-alert detection (PAD) dogs by
police at public venues and (ii) the introduction of a mass-media drug prevention campaign.
Results: The findings of the first simulation suggest that only very high rates of detection by PAD dogs
reduce the intensity of drug use, and that this decrease is driven mainly by a four-fold increase in negative
health consequences as detection rates rise. In the second simulation, our modelling showed that the
mass-media prevention campaign had little effect on the behaviour and experience of heavier drug users.
However, it led to reductions in the prevalence of health-related conditions amongst moderate drug users
and prevented them from becoming heavier users.
Conclusion: Agent-based modelling has great potential as a tool for exploring the reciprocal relationships
between environments and individuals, and for highlighting how intended changes in one domain of a
system may produce unintended consequences in other domains. The exploration of these linkages is
important in an environment as complex as the drug policy and intervention arena.
UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955395911001009
U2 - 10.1016/j.drugpo.2011.05.018
DO - 10.1016/j.drugpo.2011.05.018
M3 - Article
SN - 0955-3959
VL - 23
SP - 148
EP - 153
JO - International Journal of Drug Policy
JF - International Journal of Drug Policy
IS - 2
ER -