Application of kalman filter for adjusting track and intensity forecast of typhoon EWINIAR (0603)

Hoan Van Vo, Baek-Jo Kim, Chi Nguyen

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Recently, the Kalman Filter (KF) technique has been used widely for applications in many disciplines. In meteorology, particularly in post-processing tasks, Kalman filter has been used mainly for adjusting forecasted temperature and the surface wind magnitude, which are essentially scalar quantities. However, in the current work, we attempt to assess the effectiveness of a simple Kalman filter to adjust track and intensity forecasts from numerical models and guidance from international meteorological centers. The physical basis of this approach is that the error patterns of models and/or the interpretation of forecasters in representing the effects of the environment on storm motion and intensity as well as the tropical cyclone itself are likely to evolve gradually from one base time to another for the same cyclone. The main content of this article includes a brief description of our method for applying KF for tropical cyclone track and intensity and some preliminary results for typhoon EWINIAR (0603) that affected the Korean peninsula in 2006. Analysis of these results showed some encouraging signs that KF may be used to improve the predictions of tropical cyclone track and intensity
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)323 - 327
Number of pages5
JournalAsia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2006
Externally publishedYes

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