Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Wenju Cai; Fan Jia; Shujun Li; Ariaan Purich; Guojian Wang; Lixin Wu; Bolan Gan; Agus Santoso; Tao Geng; Benjamin Ng; Yun Yang; David Ferreira; Gerald A. Meehl; Michael J. McPhaden

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Wenju Cai, Fan Jia, Shujun Li, Ariaan Purich, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Bolan Gan, Agus Santoso, Tao Geng, Benjamin Ng, Yun Yang, David Ferreira, Gerald A. Meehl, Michael J. McPhaden

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	235-239
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	13
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x
Publication status	Published - Mar 2023

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10.1038/s41558-023-01610-xLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{d714196b58704e309b77507d3e6d6648,

title = "Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Ni{\~n}o changes",

abstract = "Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Ni{\~n}o variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Ni{\~n}o variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.",

author = "Wenju Cai and Fan Jia and Shujun Li and Ariaan Purich and Guojian Wang and Lixin Wu and Bolan Gan and Agus Santoso and Tao Geng and Benjamin Ng and Yun Yang and David Ferreira and Meehl, {Gerald A.} and McPhaden, {Michael J.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2018YFA0605700, the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory (LSKJ202203302, LSKJ202202402), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB40030000) and the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO. F.J. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2020YFA0608801, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) projects (41876008, 41730534) and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205). S.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project 42006173 and the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1509102. A.P. was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica{\textquoteright}s Environmental Future (SR200100005). G.W., B.N. and A.S. were supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s National Environmental Science Program. T.G. was supported by the NSFC project (2206209) and the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). PMEL contribution no. 5447. G.A.M. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590 and under Award Number DE-SC0022070, and also by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Open access funding provided by CSIRO Library Services. We thank the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which led the design of CMIP6 and coordinated the work, and also individual climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table ) for their effort in model simulations and projections. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2018YFA0605700, the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory (LSKJ202203302, LSKJ202202402), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB40030000) and the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO. F.J. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2020YFA0608801, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) projects (41876008, 41730534) and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205). S.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project 42006173 and the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1509102. A.P. was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica{\textquoteright}s Environmental Future (SR200100005). G.W., B.N. and A.S. were supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s National Environmental Science Program. T.G. was supported by the NSFC project (2206209) and the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). PMEL contribution no. 5447. G.A.M. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590 and under Award Number DE-SC0022070, and also by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Open access funding provided by CSIRO Library Services. We thank the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which led the design of CMIP6 and coordinated the work, and also individual climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1) for their effort in model simulations and projections. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x",

language = "English",

volume = "13",

pages = "235--239",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "3",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Jia, Fan

AU - Li, Shujun

AU - Purich, Ariaan

AU - Wang, Guojian

AU - Wu, Lixin

AU - Gan, Bolan

AU - Santoso, Agus

AU - Geng, Tao

AU - Ng, Benjamin

AU - Yang, Yun

AU - Ferreira, David

AU - Meehl, Gerald A.

AU - McPhaden, Michael J.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2018YFA0605700, the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory (LSKJ202203302, LSKJ202202402), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB40030000) and the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO. F.J. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2020YFA0608801, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) projects (41876008, 41730534) and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205). S.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project 42006173 and the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1509102. A.P. was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SR200100005). G.W., B.N. and A.S. were supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program. T.G. was supported by the NSFC project (2206209) and the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). PMEL contribution no. 5447. G.A.M. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590 and under Award Number DE-SC0022070, and also by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Open access funding provided by CSIRO Library Services. We thank the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which led the design of CMIP6 and coordinated the work, and also individual climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table ) for their effort in model simulations and projections. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2018YFA0605700, the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory (LSKJ202203302, LSKJ202202402), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB40030000) and the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO. F.J. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2020YFA0608801, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) projects (41876008, 41730534) and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205). S.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project 42006173 and the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1509102. A.P. was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SR200100005). G.W., B.N. and A.S. were supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program. T.G. was supported by the NSFC project (2206209) and the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (BX20220279). PMEL contribution no. 5447. G.A.M. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590 and under Award Number DE-SC0022070, and also by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Open access funding provided by CSIRO Library Services. We thank the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which led the design of CMIP6 and coordinated the work, and also individual climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1) for their effort in model simulations and projections. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/3

Y1 - 2023/3

N2 - Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

AB - Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x

DO - 10.1038/s41558-023-01610-x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85148442182

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 13

SP - 235

EP - 239

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 3

ER -

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Abstract

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SAEF: Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future – An Evidence-Based, Informatics Approach

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Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Projects

SAEF: Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future – An Evidence-Based, Informatics Approach

Cite this