An outlook for dynamic impact assessment of resource depletion at the global level: learnings from regional case studies

Abstract: The consumption of resources at a rate faster than they can be replenished is a pressing issue for present and future generations. Several methods account for assessing the depletion of resources, amongst which include the quantity of resource extracted, the rate of resource extraction, and the extra energy or cost for future resource extractions. This paper examines the dynamic impacts of resource depletion by utilising the substitution-based methodology. This methodology assumes that a substitute resource will replace the original resource, if it is economically viable. In previous work, the methodology was evaluated for regional case studies where natural gas was the resource being depleted. Accordingly, during the period of regional scarcity, domestic gas gets substituted with the best available alternate resource such as black coal, imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), and/or imported pipeline gas, and the resulting economic and environmental impacts are assessed. However, the results obtained are regional and are dependent on the specific circumstances of each gas markets. Thus, going past the regional impact assessment, it becomes necessary to scale up the methodology to evaluate the impacts at a global level. This would also allow the price of imported LNG to be predicted much more accurately and aid in improving the predictions at the regional level. The paper discusses the strengths and limitations of the methodology and highlights the need for a global-level methodology for evaluation of resource depletion. The paper also discusses the multi-criteria decision-making approach to strengthen the decision-making capabilities of the methodology. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]