An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation

Aysegul Askan, A Erberik, S Karimzadeh, A Yakut, Fatma Nurten Sisman, Nazan Kilic, Michael Asten

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault zone and it is located in the close vicinity of a triple conjunction of major fault systems within a basin structure. The city experienced two major events in the twentieth century; Ms8.0 in 1939 and Mw=6.6 in 1992. Hence as a study area, the city under concern has significant hazard potential. The main components of the study are probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of potential ground motions, regional building fragility information for residential buildings and damage estimation by using the generated fragility functions. The initial results are in terms of key components such as construction of soil profiles, ground motion simulations of past earthquakes and scenario events, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and fragility functions derived using regional building characteristics along with simulated regional ground motion data. The proposed approach is examined by comparing the observed damage and the estimated damage for the 1992 event, for which the results seem to have a reasonable match in between. After verification, the seismic damage distribution in the city for scenario event of Mw=7 is hypothetically calculated as a case study for potential damage prediction. The estimated damage levels in the city center reveals that Erzincan is under significant seismic threat due to its close distance from the fault system in the North, soft soil conditions within Erzincan basin as well as the seismic vulnerability of the building stock in the region. Finally, a brief discussion on the applicability of EMS-98 building types, vulnerability classes and damage grades to the proposed methodology is presented.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication16th world Conference on Earthquake
Subtitle of host publication16WCEE 2017
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2017
EventWorld Conference on Earthquake, 16WCEE 2017 - Santiago, Chile
Duration: 9 Jan 201713 Jan 2017
Conference number: 16th

Conference

ConferenceWorld Conference on Earthquake, 16WCEE 2017
Abbreviated title16WCEE 2017
CountryChile
CitySantiago
Period9/01/1713/01/17

Keywords

  • site characterization
  • probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
  • ground motion simulation
  • vulnerability
  • damage

Cite this

Askan, A., Erberik, A., Karimzadeh, S., Yakut, A., Sisman, F. N., Kilic, N., & Asten, M. (2017). An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation. In 16th world Conference on Earthquake: 16WCEE 2017 [2313]
Askan, Aysegul ; Erberik, A ; Karimzadeh, S ; Yakut, A ; Sisman, Fatma Nurten ; Kilic, Nazan ; Asten, Michael. / An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation. 16th world Conference on Earthquake: 16WCEE 2017. 2017.
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abstract = "In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault zone and it is located in the close vicinity of a triple conjunction of major fault systems within a basin structure. The city experienced two major events in the twentieth century; Ms8.0 in 1939 and Mw=6.6 in 1992. Hence as a study area, the city under concern has significant hazard potential. The main components of the study are probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of potential ground motions, regional building fragility information for residential buildings and damage estimation by using the generated fragility functions. The initial results are in terms of key components such as construction of soil profiles, ground motion simulations of past earthquakes and scenario events, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and fragility functions derived using regional building characteristics along with simulated regional ground motion data. The proposed approach is examined by comparing the observed damage and the estimated damage for the 1992 event, for which the results seem to have a reasonable match in between. After verification, the seismic damage distribution in the city for scenario event of Mw=7 is hypothetically calculated as a case study for potential damage prediction. The estimated damage levels in the city center reveals that Erzincan is under significant seismic threat due to its close distance from the fault system in the North, soft soil conditions within Erzincan basin as well as the seismic vulnerability of the building stock in the region. Finally, a brief discussion on the applicability of EMS-98 building types, vulnerability classes and damage grades to the proposed methodology is presented.",
keywords = "site characterization, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, ground motion simulation, vulnerability, damage",
author = "Aysegul Askan and A Erberik and S Karimzadeh and A Yakut and Sisman, {Fatma Nurten} and Nazan Kilic and Michael Asten",
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Askan, A, Erberik, A, Karimzadeh, S, Yakut, A, Sisman, FN, Kilic, N & Asten, M 2017, An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation. in 16th world Conference on Earthquake: 16WCEE 2017., 2313, World Conference on Earthquake, 16WCEE 2017, Santiago, Chile, 9/01/17.

An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation. / Askan, Aysegul; Erberik, A; Karimzadeh, S; Yakut, A; Sisman, Fatma Nurten; Kilic, Nazan; Asten, Michael.

16th world Conference on Earthquake: 16WCEE 2017. 2017. 2313.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

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T1 - An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation

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AU - Erberik, A

AU - Karimzadeh, S

AU - Yakut, A

AU - Sisman, Fatma Nurten

AU - Kilic, Nazan

AU - Asten, Michael

PY - 2017/1

Y1 - 2017/1

N2 - In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault zone and it is located in the close vicinity of a triple conjunction of major fault systems within a basin structure. The city experienced two major events in the twentieth century; Ms8.0 in 1939 and Mw=6.6 in 1992. Hence as a study area, the city under concern has significant hazard potential. The main components of the study are probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of potential ground motions, regional building fragility information for residential buildings and damage estimation by using the generated fragility functions. The initial results are in terms of key components such as construction of soil profiles, ground motion simulations of past earthquakes and scenario events, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and fragility functions derived using regional building characteristics along with simulated regional ground motion data. The proposed approach is examined by comparing the observed damage and the estimated damage for the 1992 event, for which the results seem to have a reasonable match in between. After verification, the seismic damage distribution in the city for scenario event of Mw=7 is hypothetically calculated as a case study for potential damage prediction. The estimated damage levels in the city center reveals that Erzincan is under significant seismic threat due to its close distance from the fault system in the North, soft soil conditions within Erzincan basin as well as the seismic vulnerability of the building stock in the region. Finally, a brief discussion on the applicability of EMS-98 building types, vulnerability classes and damage grades to the proposed methodology is presented.

AB - In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault zone and it is located in the close vicinity of a triple conjunction of major fault systems within a basin structure. The city experienced two major events in the twentieth century; Ms8.0 in 1939 and Mw=6.6 in 1992. Hence as a study area, the city under concern has significant hazard potential. The main components of the study are probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of potential ground motions, regional building fragility information for residential buildings and damage estimation by using the generated fragility functions. The initial results are in terms of key components such as construction of soil profiles, ground motion simulations of past earthquakes and scenario events, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and fragility functions derived using regional building characteristics along with simulated regional ground motion data. The proposed approach is examined by comparing the observed damage and the estimated damage for the 1992 event, for which the results seem to have a reasonable match in between. After verification, the seismic damage distribution in the city for scenario event of Mw=7 is hypothetically calculated as a case study for potential damage prediction. The estimated damage levels in the city center reveals that Erzincan is under significant seismic threat due to its close distance from the fault system in the North, soft soil conditions within Erzincan basin as well as the seismic vulnerability of the building stock in the region. Finally, a brief discussion on the applicability of EMS-98 building types, vulnerability classes and damage grades to the proposed methodology is presented.

KW - site characterization

KW - probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

KW - ground motion simulation

KW - vulnerability

KW - damage

M3 - Conference Paper

BT - 16th world Conference on Earthquake

ER -

Askan A, Erberik A, Karimzadeh S, Yakut A, Sisman FN, Kilic N et al. An interdisciplinary approach for regional seismic damage estimation. In 16th world Conference on Earthquake: 16WCEE 2017. 2017. 2313