An analytical model for system-wide and tier-specific assessment of resilience to supply chain risks

Mehrdokht Pournader, Kristian Rotaru, Andrew Philip Kach, Seyed Hossein Razavi Hajiagha

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

52 Citations (Scopus)


Purpose: Based on the emerging view of supply chains as complex adaptive systems, this paper aims to build and test an analytical model for resilience assessment surrounding supply chain risks at the level of the supply chain system and its individual tiers. Design/methodology/approach: To address the purpose of this study, a multimethod research approach is adopted as follows: first, data envelopment analysis (DEA) modelling and fuzzy set theory are used to build a fuzzy network DEA model to assess risk resilience of the overall supply chains and their individual tiers; next, the proposed model is tested using a survey of 150 middle- and top-level managers representing nine industry sectors in Iran. Findings: The survey results show a substantial variation in resilience ratings between the overall supply chains characterizing nine industry sectors in Iran and their individual tiers (upstream, downstream and organizational processes). The findings indicate that the system-wide characteristic of resilience of the overall supply chain is not necessarily indicative of the resilience of its individual tiers. Practical implications: High efficiency scores of a number of tiers forming a supply chain are shown to have only a limited effect on the overall efficiency score of the resulting supply chain. Overall, our research findings confirm the necessity of adopting both the system-wide and tier-specific approach by analysts and decision makers when assessing supply chain resilience. Integrated as part of risk response and mitigation process, the information obtained through such analytical approach ensures timely identification and mitigation of major sources of risk in the supply chains. Originality/value: Supply chain resilience assessment models rarely consider resilience to risks at the level of individual supply chain tiers, focusing instead on the system-wide characteristics of supply chain resilience. The proposed analytical model allows for the assessment of supply chain resilience among individual tiers for a wide range of supply chain risks categorized as upstream, downstream, organizational, network and external.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)589-609
Number of pages21
JournalSupply Chain Management
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2016


  • DEA
  • Supply chain resilience
  • Supply chain risk

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