Ambient fine particulate matter and daily mortality: A comparative analysis of observed and estimated exposure in 347 cities

Wenhua Yu, Wenzhong Huang, Antonio Gasparrini, Francesco Sera, Alexandra Schneider, Susanne Breitner, Jan Kyselý, Joel Schwartz, Joana Madureira, Vânia Gaio, Yue Leon Guo, Rongbin Xu, Gongbo Chen, Zhengyu Yang, Bo Wen, Yao Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Haidong Kan, Jiangning Song, Shanshan LiYuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Mathilde Pascal, Susana Das Neves Pereira Da Silva, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Shih Chun Pan, Aleš Urban, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Caroline Ameling, Danny Houthuijs, Shilpa Rao, Bertil Forsberg, Matteo Scortichini, Massimo Stafoggia, Pierre Masselot

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


Background: Model-estimated air pollution exposure products have been widely used in epidemiological studies to assess the health risks of particulate matter with diameters of =2.5 mm (PM2.5). However, few studies have assessed the disparities in health effects between modelestimated and station-observed PM2.5 exposures. Methods: We collected daily all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality data in 347 cities across 15 countries and regions worldwide based on the Multi-City Multi-Country collaborative research network. The station-observed PM2.5 data were obtained from official monitoring stations. The model-estimated global PM2.5 product was developed using a machine-learning approach. The associations between daily exposure to PM2.5 and mortality were evaluated using a two-stage analytical approach. Results: We included 15.8 million all-cause, 1.5 million respiratory and 4.5 million cardiovascular deaths from 2000 to 2018. Short-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a relative risk increase (RRI) of mortality from both station-observed and model-estimated exposures. Every 10-μg/ m3 increase in the 2-day moving average PM2.5 was associated with overall RRIs of 0.67% (95% CI: 0.49 to 0.85), 0.68% (95% CI: -0.03 to 1.39) and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.82) for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality based on station-observed PM2.5 and RRIs of 0.87% (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.06), 0.81% (95% CI: 0.08 to 1.55) and 0.71% (95% CI: 0.32 to 1.09) based on model-estimated exposure, respectively. Conclusions: Mortality risks associated with daily PM2.5 exposure were consistent for both station-observed and model-estimated exposures, suggesting the reliability and potential applicability of the global PM2.5 product in epidemiological studies.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberdyae066
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Epidemiology
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2024


  • air monitoring station observation
  • fine particulate matter
  • model estimation
  • mortality risk comparison
  • Short-term exposure

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