Air pollution and political trust in local government: evidence from China

While it is well-established that air pollution damages health and inhibits productivity, the political cost of air pollution remains poorly understood. We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on political trust in local government in China, which underpins the stability of the authoritarian state. Combining a nationally representative longitudinal survey with satellite derived PM_2.5 concentrations, we find that a one μg/m³ exogenous increase in PM_2.5 concentrations, due to atmospheric thermal inversion, reduces trust in local government by 4.1 per cent of one standard deviation. This implies that if China were to reduce PM_2.5 emissions to the annual standard of 35 μg/m³ mandated by the Chinese government, this would boost trust in local government by 21.2 per cent evaluated at the mean. We examine the underlying transmission channels and find that prolonged exposure to PM_2.5 lowers citizens’ life satisfaction and evaluation of local government performance, induces adverse health effects, imposes additional financial burden and, albeit to a lesser extent, reduces household income.